A statistical model for predicting PM2.5 for the western United States

ABSTRACT

A new statistical model for predicting daily ground level fine scale particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations at monitoring sites in the western United States was developed and tested operationally during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. The model is site-specific, using a multiple linear regression schema that relies on the previous day’s PM_2.5 value, along with fire and smoke related variables from satellite observations. Fire variables include fire radiative power (FRP) and the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component index. Smoke variables, in addition to ground monitored PM_2.5, include aerosol optical depth (AOD) and smoke plume perimeters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hazard Mapping System. The overall statistical model was inspired by a similar system developed for British Columbia (BC) by the BC Center for Disease Control, but it has been heavily modified and adapted to work in the United States. On average, our statistical model was able to explain 78% of the variance in daily ground level PM_2.5. A novel method for implementation of this model as an operational forecast system was also developed and was tested and used during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. This method focused on producing a continuously-updating prediction that incorporated the latest information available throughout the day, including both updated remote sensing data and real-time PM_2.5 observations. The diurnal pattern of performance of this model shows that even a few hours of data early in the morning can substantially improve model performance.

Implications: Wildfire smoke events produce significant air quality impacts across the western United States each year impacting millions. We present and evaluate a statistical model for making updating predictions of fine particulate (PM_2.5) levels during smoke events. These predictions run hourly and are being used by smoke incident specialists assigned to wildfire operations, and may be of interest to public health officials, air quality regulators, and the public. Predictions based on this model will be available on the web for the 2019 western U.S. wildfire season this summer.     

Characterizing sources of nitrate leaching from an irrigated dairy farm in Merced County, California

Dairy farms comprise a complex landscape of groundwater pollution sources. The objective of our work is to develop a method to quantify nitrate leaching to shallow groundwater from different management units at dairy farms. Total nitrate loads are determined by the sequential calibration of a sub-regional scale and a farm-scale three-dimensional groundwater flow and transport model using observations at different spatial scales. These observations include local measurements of groundwater heads and nitrate concentrations in an extensive monitoring well network, providing data at a scale of a few meters and measurements of discharge rates and nitrate concentrations in a tile-drain network, providing data integrated across multiple farms. The various measurement scales are different from the spatial scales of the calibration parameters, which are the recharge and nitrogen leaching rates from individual management units. The calibration procedure offers a conceptual framework for using field measurements at different spatial scales to estimate recharge N concentrations at the management unit scale. It provides a map of spatially varying dairy farming impact on groundwater nitrogen. The method is applied to a dairy farm located in a relatively vulnerable hydrogeologic region in California. Potential sources within the dairy farm are divided into three categories, representing different manure management units: animal exercise yards and feeding areas (corrals), liquid manure holding ponds, and manure irrigated forage fields. Estimated average nitrogen leaching is 872 kg/ha/year, 807 kg/ha/year and 486 kg/ha/year for corrals, ponds and fields respectively. Results are applied to evaluate the accuracy of nitrogen mass balances often used by regulatory agencies to assess groundwater impacts. Calibrated leaching rates compare favorably to field and farm scale nitrogen mass balances. These data and interpretations provide a basis for developing improved management strategies.     

Derivation of ecotoxicity thresholds for uranium

Assessment of the risk of impact from most radionuclides is based on the total radiological dose rate to the organism of concern. However, for uranium (U) there can be greater risk from chemical toxicity than radiological toxicity (depending on the isotopic composition). Chemical ecotoxicity of U is dependent on several environmental parameters. The most important are carbonate content, because of the formation of soluble carbonate complexes, and divalent cation content (Ca++ and Mg++), because of their competitive interaction with the uranyl ion (UO2++). This study summarizes the literature available to set PNECs (predicted no-effect concentrations) for chemical toxicity of U to non-human biota. The corresponding radiological doses were estimated, and as expected chemical toxicity proved to be the greater concern. There were limited data from some types of biota; however, PNECs for the types of biota of interest were as follows: terrestrial plants--250 mg U kg(-1) dry soil; other soil biota--100 mg U kg(-1) dry soil; freshwater plants--0.005 mg U L(-1) water; freshwater invertebrates--0.005 mg U L(-1) water; freshwater benthos--100 mg U kg(-1) dry sediment; freshwater fish at water hardnesses of: <10 mg CaCO3 L(-1) (very soft water)--0.4 mg U L(-1) water; 10-100 mg CaCO3 L(-1) (soft water)--2.8 mg U L(-1) water; and >100 mg CaCO3 L(-1) (hard water)--23 mg U L(-1) water; or as a function of hardness--0.26 (hardness as mg CaCO3 L(-1); mammals--0.1 mg U kg(-1) body weight d(-1).     

The distinction between arylsulphatases in chorionic villi

The relatively high activity of arylsulphatase C (ASC) in the placenta is a potential risk for the misdiagnosis of arylsulphatase A (ASA) or arylsulphatase B (ASB) deficiency in chorionic villus sampling when assayed by synthetic substrates. A clear distinction between these enzymes can be achieved in either the direct villi or the cultured villi cells. Interestingly, the activity of ASC differed significantly in cultured villi cells when prepared by two different methods, namely, minced villi versus treatment with trypsin and collagenase, while ASA and ASB were not affected by these treatments. Whether ASC was directly affected by one of these treatments or whether a selection of cells with different ASC levels was achieved is not yet clear, but this phenomenon clearly indicates the importance of precise definition of CVS preparations to correlate with the enzyme activity data.     

Mucolipidosis type IV: Accumulation of phospholipids and gangliosides in cultured amniotic cells. A tool for prenatal diagnosis

Cultured amniotic fluid cells from two mucolipidosis type IV (MLIV)-affected fetuses demonstrated accumulation of phospholipids and gangliosides when compared with normal controls. Like cultured skin fibroblasts from MLIV patients, cultured amniotic cells from the affected fetuses accumulated primarily lyso phospholipids and this could be demonstrated by radioactive labelling with appropriate precursors, either inorganic phosphate or oleic acid. Furthermore, like cultured skin fibroblasts, there was significant retention of exogenously supplied GDIA ganglioside in the affected amniotic cells. This storage was previously demonstrated to be unique to MLIV and thus can be used at present as a specific procedure for prenatal diagnosis of MLIV.     

Flame retardants and legacy contaminants in polar bears from Alaska, Canada, East Greenland and Svalbard, 2005-2008

Flame retardants and legacy contaminants were analyzed in adipose tissue from 11 circumpolar polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in 2005-2008 spanning Alaska east to Svalbard. Although 37 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), total-(α)-hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), 2 polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), pentabromotoluene, pentabromoethylbenzene, hexabromobenzene, 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy(ethane) and decabromodiphenyl ethane were screened, only 4 PBDEs, total-(α-)HBCD and BB153 were consistently found. Geometric mean ΣPBDE (4.6-78.4 ng/g lipid weight (lw)) and BB153 (2.5-81.1 ng/g lw) levels were highest in East Greenland (43.2 and 39.2 ng/g lipid weight (lw), respectively), Svalbard (44.4 and 20.9 ng/g lw) and western (38.6 and 30.1 ng/g lw) and southern Hudson Bay (78.4 and 81.1 ng/g lw). Total-(α)-HBCD levels (<0.3-41.1 ng/g lw) were lower than ΣPBDE levels in all subpopulations except in Svalbard, consistent with greater European HBCD use versus North American pentaBDE product use. ΣPCB levels were high relative to flame retardants as well as other legacy contaminants and increased from west to east (1797-10,537 ng/g lw). ΣCHL levels were highest among legacy organochlorine pesticides and relatively spatially uniform (765-3477 ng/g lw). ΣDDT levels were relatively low and spatially variable (31.5-206 ng/g lw). However, elevated proportions of p,p'-DDT to ΣDDT in Alaska and Beaufort Sea relative to other subpopulations suggested fresh inputs from vector control use in Asia and/or Africa. Comparing earlier circumpolar polar bear studies, ΣPBDE, total-(α)-HBCD, p,p'-DDE and ΣCHL levels consistently declined, whereas levels of other legacy contaminants did not. International regulations have clearly been effective in reducing levels of several legacy contaminants in polar bears relative to historical levels. However, slow or stalling declines of certain historic pollutants like PCBs and a complex mixture of "new" chemicals continue to be of concern to polar bear health and that of their arctic marine ecosystems.     

应对恐怖袭击之策

本文作者Zeigler博士在防护服研究试验、防护服行业规定及标准、大规模杀伤性武器等方面具有专业知识。作者是美国材料与试验学会（ASTM）防护服F23委员会微粒物质分委员会主任，也是美国防火委员套紧急医疗服务和危险物质防护服厦装备技术委员会成员。为应对恐怖袭击，本文从美国政府拨款、协调机构、信息通报、危机分析、防护服装配备和储存、人员培训等方面进行了论述，有一定参考价值，现予发表，供有关部门、企业和广大读者参阅。     

Impact of the increased adoption of prenatal cfDNA screening on non-profit patient advocacy organizations in the United States

The ‘Stakeholder Perspectives on Noninvasive Prenatal Genetic Screening’ Symposium was held in conjunction with the 2015 annual meeting of the International Society for Prenatal Diagnosis. During the day-long meeting, a panel of patient advocacy group (PAG) representatives discussed concerns and challenges raised by prenatal cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening, which has resulted in larger demands upon PAGs from concerned patients receiving prenatal cfDNA screening results. Prominent concerns included confusion about the accuracy of cfDNA screening and a lack of patient education resources about genetic conditions included in cfDNA screens. Some of the challenges faced by PAGs included funding limitations, lack of consistently implemented standards of care and oversight, diverse perspectives among PAGs and questions about neutrality, and lack of access to training and genetic counselors. PAG representatives also put forward suggestions for addressing these challenges, including improving educational and PAG funding and increasing collaboration between PAGs and the medical community. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.